USA?
Even with Donald Trump in charge, the USA is highly unlikely to strike first with a nuclear bomb. Although Trump is regarded as a ‘loose cannon’, he and his advisors are well aware of the consequences of striking first, and would face a huge backlash from the American population and American allies. There would really be no benefit at all, from the United States perspective. The only exception might be an a retaliation for what is incorrectly perceived to be an initiation of a nuclear strike from Russia.
Russia?
Whereas Putin is well aware of the concept of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction), there are other vocal commentators within the higher ranks of the Kremlin who regularly call for nuclear strikes on the Western allies, the UK in particular. This is generally perceived to be nuclear sabre-rattling, and despite Putin’s hunger for land and power he has always been cautious with regard to the West and during Biden’s tenure, it was explained very clearly to him what the consequences of starting a war with the West would involve. Despite this, Putin has continued to make veiled nuclear threats throught the Ukraine war, has changed Russia’s nuclear doctrine, and resumed nuclear testing. There has always been the concern that if Putin was to become ill, die or be overthrown by more radical players, then rational decision-making might not prevail.
India/Pakistan?
Neighbouring countries India and Pakistan really hate each other. So much so, that there are occasional skirmishes – especially over the disputed region of Kashmir, that occasionally escalate with the potential to turn into a full-blown war. Observers were very worried in April 2025, when fighting culminated in 5 aircraft being shot down, and it showed potential signs of escalating into a full-blown conflict. Both countries have stable governments, and it is highly unlikely that either would risk, especially given the proximity of fallout to their own country. However, no-one wants to see either country tested to see what they would resort to in an extreme situation.
Israel?
Iran?
It is highly suspected that Iran has been attempting to develop nucleauspected nuclear development site at Fordow with a view to causing set-back to their development programme, although it’s effectiveness is still heavily debated. Would Iran use a nuclear bomb if it had possessed the technology? Iran has spent many years funding the enemies of Israel with the objective of annihilating the State of Israel. Iran cares not for the lives of its own citizens any more than those of Israelis, and is unlikely to care about collateral damage in the Middle East, should it drop a nuke on Israel. For this reason, the West is very concerned that Iran should not gain access to nuclear weapons.
North Korea
Kim Jong-Un is not known for being the most stable or level-headed inhabitant of this planet. He would much rather spend money on developing advanced weapons, nuclear weapons and submarines so that he can be a threat to the USA and the West in general, rather than feeding his own citizens, many of which are bordering on starvation due to a combination of his budget priorities and the heavy sanctions levied against North Korea. Despite being regarded as a backward country, and despite a very poor start in missile development, the North Koreans have advanced steadily to a level where they are already a serious threat stable neighbouring countries such as South Korea and Japan. They have demonstrated much greater reliability and steadily greater range. When a country is ruled with fear, by a power-hungry madman, it’s certainly not a good to add long-range nuclear weapons into the mix.